Biology & Life Sciences

Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease Dynamics

Published October 21, 2020 Calls for Papers Collections

Mathematical modeling of biological processes has contributed to improving our understanding of real-world phenomena and predicting dynamics about how life operates. Mathematical approaches have significantly shaped research on disease and evolving epidemics across the globe by providing real-time decision support. Modeling can help describe and predict how diseases develop and spread, both on local and global scales. In addition, mathematical modeling has played a critical role in understanding and measuring the impact of intervention strategies such as vaccination, isolation, and treatment.

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PLOS ONE Introducing the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease Dynamics Collection | EveryONE: The PLOS ONE blog
February 20, 2020 PLOS ONE Editors
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PLOS Biology Collection

PLOS Biology Dynamical footprints enable detection of disease emergence
June 9, 2020 Tobias S. Brett, Pejman Rohani
PLOS Biology Combining genomics and epidemiology to track mumps virus transmission in the United States
March 19, 2020 Shirlee Wohl, Hayden C. Metsky, Stephen F. Schaffner, Anne Piantadosi, Meagan Burns, Joseph A. Lewnard, Bridget Chak, Lydia A. Krasilnikova, Katherine J. Siddle, Christian B. Matranga, Bettina Bankamp, Scott Hennigan, Brandon Sabina, Elizabeth H. Byrne, Rebecca J. McNall, Rickey R. Shah, James Qu, Daniel J. Park, Soheyla Gharib, Susan Fitzgerald, Paul Barreira, Stephen Fleming, Susan Lett, Paul A. Rota, Lawrence C. Madoff, Nathan L. Yozwiak, Bronwyn L. MacInnis, Sandra Smole, Yonatan H. Grad, Pardis C. Sabeti
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PLOS Biology Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction
December 3, 2019 Frédéric M. Hamelin, Linda J. S. Allen, Vrushali A. Bokil, Louis J. Gross, Frank M. Hilker, Michael J. Jeger, Carrie A. Manore, Alison G. Power, Megan A. Rúa, Nik J. Cunniffe

PLOS Computational Biology Collection

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10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007838

PLOS Computational Biology Estimation of the force of infection and infectious period of skin sores in remote Australian communities using interval-censored data
October 5, 2020 Michael Lydeamore, Patricia Campbell, David Price, Yue Wu, Adrian Marcato, Will Cuningham, Jonathan Carapetis, Ross Andrews, Malcolm McDonald, Jodie McVernon, Steven Tong, James McCaw
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PLOS Computational Biology Community-level impacts of spatial repellents for control of diseases vectored by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes
September 25, 2020 Quirine A. ten Bosch, Joseph M. Wagman, Fanny Castro-Llanos, Nicole L. Achee, John P. Grieco, T. Alex Perkins
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PLOS Computational Biology Fast estimation of time-varying infectious disease transmission rates
September 21, 2020 Mikael Jagan, Michelle S. deJonge, Olga Krylova, David J. D. Earn
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PLOS Computational Biology Managing disease outbreaks: The importance of vector mobility and spatially heterogeneous control
August 21, 2020 Jeffery Demers, Sharon Bewick, Folashade Agusto, Kevin A. Caillouët, William F. Fagan, Suzanne L. Robertson
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PLOS Computational Biology Mathematical model and tool to explore shorter multi-drug therapy options for active pulmonary tuberculosis
August 18, 2020 John Fors, Natasha Strydom, William S. Fox, Ron J. Keizer, Radojka M. Savic
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PLOS Computational Biology Immunization Strategies in Networks with Missing Data
July 9, 2020 Samuel Rosenblatt, Jeffrey Smith, G. Robin Gauthier, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne
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PLOS Computational Biology Trade-off between local transmission and long-range dispersal drives infectious disease outbreak size in spatially structured populations
July 6, 2020 Elisa Benincà, Thomas Hagenaars, Gert Jan Boender, Jan van de Kassteele, Michiel van Boven
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PLOS Computational Biology Early transmission of sensitive strain slows down emergence of drug resistance in Plasmodium vivax
June 17, 2020 Mario Ayala, Daniel Villela
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PLOS Computational Biology A mechanistic, stigmergy model of territory formation in solitary animals: Territorial behavior can dampen disease prevalence but increase persistence
June 11, 2020 Lauren A. White, Sue VandeWoude, Meggan E. Craft
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PLOS Computational Biology Stochastic dynamics of Francisella tularensis infection and replication
June 1, 2020 Jonathan Carruthers, Grant Lythe, Martín López-García, Joseph Gillard, Thomas R. Laws, Roman Lukaszewski, Carmen Molina-París
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PLOS Computational Biology Estimating a novel stochastic model for within-field disease dynamics of banana bunchy top virus via approximate Bayesian computation
May 18, 2020 Abhishek Varghese, Christopher Drovandi, Antonietta Mira, Kerrie Mengersen
PLOS Computational Biology Calibration of individual-based models to epidemiological data: A systematic review
June 9, 2020 C. Marijn Hazelbag, Jonathan Dushoff, Emanuel M. Dominic, Zinhle E. Mthombothi, Wim Delva
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PLOS Computational Biology An open source tool to infer epidemiological and immunological dynamics from serological data: Serosolver
May 4, 2020 James Hay, Amanda Minter, Kylie Ainslie, Justin Lessler, Bingyi Yang, Derek Cummings, Adam Kucharski, Steven Riley
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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007743

PLOS Computational Biology Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response
April 20, 2020 Sean M. Cavany, Guido España, Alun L. Lloyd, Lance A. Waller, Uriel Kitron, Helvio Astete, William H. Elson, Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec, Thomas W. Scott, Amy C. Morrison, Robert C. Reiner Jr., T. Alex Perkins
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10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007734

PLOS Computational Biology The research and development process for multiscale models of infectious disease systems
April 2, 2020 Winston Garira
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PLOS Computational Biology A model of tuberculosis clustering in low incidence countries reveals more transmission in the United Kingdom than the Netherlands between 2010 and 2015
March 27, 2020 Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon, Hester Korthals Altes, Jennifer A. Davidson, Andrew M. T. Pollock, Dick van Soolingen, Colin Campbell, Maeve K. Lalor
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PLOS Computational Biology Quantifying the roles of vomiting, diarrhea, and residents vs. staff in norovirus transmission in U.S. nursing home outbreaks
March 25, 2020 Carly Adams, David Young, Paul A. Gastañaduy, Prabasaj Paul, Zach Marsh, Aron J. Hall, Benjamin A. Lopman
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PLOS Computational Biology Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: Individual-level estimates of transmission and its spatiotemporal variation using a diffusion network approach
March 23, 2020 Isobel Routledge, Shengjie Lai, Katherine Battle, Azra Ghani, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Kyle Gustafson, Swapnil Mishra, Juliette Unwin, Joshua Proctor, Andrew Tatem, Zhongjie Li, Samir Bhatt
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PLOS Computational Biology Estimating epidemiological parameters from experiments in vector access to host plants, the method of matching gradients
March 16, 2020 Ruairi Donnelly, Geofrey W. Sikazwe, Christopher A. Gilligan
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PLOS Computational Biology Modeling the epidemiology of residual Plasmodium vivax malaria in a heterogeneous host population: A case study in the Amazon Basin
March 13, 2020 Rodrigo M. Corder, Marcelo U. Ferreira, M. Gabriela M. Gomes
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PLOS Computational Biology Fine-scale family structure shapes influenza transmission risk in households: Insights from primary schools in Matsumoto city, 2014/15
December 26, 2019 Akira Endo, Mitsuo Uchida, Adam J. Kucharski, Sebastian Funk

PLOS ONE Collection

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PLOS ONE Patch Dynamics Modeling Framework from Pathogens’ Perspective: Unified and Standardized Approach for Complicated Epidemic Systems
October 15, 2020 Shi Chen, Yakubu Owolabi, Ang Li, Eugenia Lo, Patrick Robinson, Daniel Janies, Chihoon Lee, Michael Dulin
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PLOS ONE Epidemiology and control of maedi-visna virus: Curing the flock
September 10, 2020 Andrew W. Illius, Karianne Lievaart-Peterson, Tom N. McNeilly, Nicholas J. Savill
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PLOS ONE The differential impacts of non-locally acquired infections and treatment interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in Hong Kong
August 13, 2020 Ngai Sze Wong, Man Po Lee, Ka Hing Wong, Owen Tsang, Shui Shan Lee
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PLOS ONE A between-herd data-driven stochastic model to explore the spatio-temporal spread of hepatitis E virus in the French pig production network
July 13, 2020 Morgane Salines, Mathieu Andraud, Nicolas Rose, Stefan Widgren
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PLOS ONE Multiscale model for the optimal design of pedestrian queues to mitigate infectious disease spread
July 9, 2020 Pierrot Derjany, Sirish Namilae, Dahai Liu, Ashok Srinivasan
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PLOS ONE Bayesian hierarchical modeling of joint spatiotemporal risk patterns for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB) in Kenya
July 2, 2020 Verrah A. Otiende, Thomas N. Achia, Henry G. Mwambi
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PLOS ONE Comprehensive integrated NGS-based surveillance and contact-network modeling unravels transmission dynamics of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in a high-risk population within a tertiary care hospital.
June 24, 2020 Bernd Neumann, Jennifer Bender, Benjamin Maier, Alice Wittig, Stephan Fuchs, Dirk Brockmann, Torsten Semmler, Hermann Einsele, Sabrina Kraus, Lothar Wieler, Ulrich Vogel, Guido Werner
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PLOS ONE Modeling inpatient and outpatient antibiotic stewardship interventions to reduce the burden of Clostridioides difficile infection in a regional healthcare network
June 11, 2020 Sarah Rhea, Kasey Jones, Stacy Endres-Dighe, Breda Munoz, David J. Weber, Rainer Hilscher, Jennifer MacFarquhar, Emily Sickbert-Bennett, Lauren DiBiase, Ashley Marx, James Rineer, James Lewis, Georgiy Bobashev, for the CDC MInD-Healthcare Network
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PLOS ONE Multilevel model for airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease applied to Swedish livestock
May 26, 2020 Oscar Björnham, Robert Sigg, Jan Burman
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PLOS ONE Vaccination and monitoring strategies for epidemic prevention and detection in the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis)
May 18, 2020 Jessica N. Sanchez, Brian R. Hudgens
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PLOS ONE The past, present and future impact of HIV prevention and control on HPV and cervical disease in Tanzania: A modeling study
May 6, 2020 Michaela T. Hall, Megan A. Smith, Kate T. Simms, Ruanne V. Barnabas, Karen Canfell, John M. Murray
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PLOS ONE PS-SiZer map to investigate significant features of body-weight profile changes in HIV infected patients in the IeDEA Collaboration
May 1, 2020 Jaroslaw Harezlak, Samiha Sarwat, Kara Wools-Kaloustian, Michael Schomaker, Eric Balestre, Matthew Law, Sasisopin Kiertiburanakul, Matthew Fox, Diana Huis in ‘t Veld, Beverly Sue Musick, Constantin Theodore Yiannoutsos
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PLOS ONE Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes
April 30, 2020 Lauren A. White, Lee Mordechai
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PLOS ONE Impact of prophylactic vaccination strategies on Ebola virus transmission: A modeling analysis
April 27, 2020 Ravi Potluri, Amit Kumar, Vikalp Maheshwari, Charlie Smith, Valerie Oriol Mathieu, Kerstin Luhn, Benoit Callendret, Hitesh Bhandari
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PLOS ONE Stochastic modeling of influenza spread dynamics with recurrences
April 21, 2020 John Whitman, Ciriyam Jayaprakash
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PLOS ONE Country-specific intervention strategies for top three TB burden countries using mathematical model
April 9, 2020 Soyoung Kim, Aurelio de los Reyes V, Eunok Jung
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PLOS ONE Cholera deaths in Soho, London, 1854: Risk Terrain Modeling for epidemiological investigations
March 30, 2020 Joel M. Caplan, Leslie W. Kennedy, Christine H. Neudecker
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PLOS ONE Cervical cancer prevention in Indonesia: An updated clinical impact, cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis
March 23, 2020 Didik Setiawan, Andrijono, Sri Rezeki Hadinegoro, Hashta Meyta, R. Vensya Sitohang, Gertrudis Tandy, Dyah Aryani Perwitasari, Maarten J. Postma
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PLOS ONE Automated Monitoring of Tweets for Early Detection of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic
March 17, 2020 Aditya Joshi, Ross Sparks, Sarvnaz Karimi, Sheng-Lun Jason Yan, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Cecile Paris, C Raina MacIntyre
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geralt from Pixabay

PLOS ONE A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa
March 12, 2020 Peter Joseph Witbooi, Charlene Africa, Alan Christoffels, Ibrahim Hussin Ibrahim Ahmed
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Image by Pete Linforth from Pixabay

PLOS ONE Direct transmission via households informs models of disease and intervention dynamics in cholera
March 12, 2020 Victor A. Meszaros, Miles D. Miller-Dickson, Francis Baffour-Awuah Junior, Salvador Almagro-Moreno, C. Brandon Ogbunugafor
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PLOS ONE Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia
March 11, 2020 Diana Paola Lizarralde-Bejarano, Daniel Rojas-Díaz, Sair Arboleda-Sánchez, María Eugenia Puerta-Yepes
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PLOS ONE A Bayesian approach for detecting a disease that is not being modeled
February 28, 2020 John M. Aronis, Jeffrey P. Ferraro, Per H. Gesteland, Fuchiang Tsui, Ye Ye, Michael M. Wagner, Gregory F. Cooper
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PLOS ONE Assessment of environmental variability on malaria transmission in a malaria-endemic rural dry zone locality of Sri Lanka: The wavelet approach
February 21, 2020 Rahini Mahendran, Ilangamage Thilini Sashika Piyatilake, Shyam Sanjeewa Nishantha Perera, Manuj Chrishantha Weerasinghe, Sisira Pathirana
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Image by Katja Fuhlert from Pixabay

PLOS ONE Disease burden and seasonal impact of improving rotavirus vaccine coverage in the United States: A modeling study
February 14, 2020 Chin-En Ai, Molly Steele, Benjamin Lopman
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Image by Silas Camargo Silão from Pixabay

PLOS ONE Can syndromic surveillance help forecast winter hospital bed pressures in England?
February 10, 2020 Roger Morbey, Andre Charlett, Iain Lake, James Mapstone, Richard Pebody, James Sedgwick, Gillian Smith, Alex Elliot
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10.1371/journal.pone.0222900

PLOS ONE Modeling Chikungunya control strategies and Mayaro potential outbreak in the city of Rio de Janeiro
January 28, 2020 Esteban Dodero-Rojas, Luiza G. Ferreira, Vitor B. P. Leite, José N. Onuchic, Vinícius G. Contessoto
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Ed Uthman

PLOS ONE A mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of controlling relapse in Plasmodium vivax malaria endemic in the Republic of Korea
January 24, 2020 Sungchan Kim, Jong Hyuk Byun, Anna Park, Il Hyo Jung
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National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH

PLOS ONE Estimating the basic reproduction number of a pathogen in a single host when only a single founder successfully infects
January 10, 2020 Vruj Patel, John L. Spouge
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Image by janjf93 from Pixabay

PLOS ONE A dengue fever predicting model based on Baidu search index data and climate data in South China
December 30, 2019 Dan Liu, Songjing Guo, Mingjun Zou, Cong Chen, Fei Deng, Zhong Xie, Sheng Hu, Liang Wu
PLOS ONE A novel model for malaria prediction based on ensemble algorithms
December 26, 2019 Mengyang Wang, Hui Wang, Jiao Wang, Hongwei Liu, Rui Lu, Tongqing Duan, Xiaowen Gong, Siyuan Feng, Yuanyuan Liu, Zhuang Cui, Changping Li, Jun Ma
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Manuel Medina

PLOS ONE Primary Epstein-Barr virus infection with and without infectious mononucleosis
December 17, 2019 Klaus Rostgaard, Henry H. Balfour Jr., Ruth Jarrett, Christian Erikstrup, Ole Pedersen, Henrik Ullum, Lars Peter Nielsen, Marianne Voldstedlund, Henrik Hjalgrim
PLOS ONE A global model for predicting the arrival of imported dengue infections
December 4, 2019 Jessica Liebig, Cassie Jansen, Dean Paini, Lauren Gardner, Raja Jurdak
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PLOS ONE The effect of climate change on cholera disease: The road ahead using artificial neural network
November 6, 2019 Zahra Asadgol, Hamed Mohammadi, Majid Kermani, Alireza Badirzadeh, Mitra Gholami
PLOS ONE Forecasting the impact of population ageing on tuberculosis incidence
September 24, 2019 Chu-Chang Ku, Peter J. Dodd

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